The COVID-19 pandemic, and the resulting economic recession, have impacted employment in dramatic ways. In the United States, at the start of the pandemic, the unemployment rate more than tripled, disproportionately affecting some groups. Evidence on programs that have effectively improved employment and earnings for people with low incomes during past recessions and recoveries can help policymakers and practitioners target their resources as they seek to improve employment in the wake of the pandemic and beyond.
This report uses a literature scan and a meta-analysis to synthesize the information catalogued by the Pathways Clearinghouse to understand the interventions and types of services with the strongest evidence of improving employment, earnings, and related outcomes for people with low incomes during recessions and recoveries.
Research Questions
- Do interventions designed to improve employment outcomes for people with low incomes show evidence of effectiveness during recessions and recoveries?
- What specific types of interventions work to improve employment outcomes for people with low incomes during recessions and recoveries from recessions? Are specific types of interventions more or less effective during recessions or recoveries?
- How should service providers consider altering operations in response to economic conditions?
Key Findings and Highlights
- On average, interventions improve employment outcomes among people with low incomes during recessions and recoveries.
- This report considered 30 interventions implemented during recessions. Of these 30 individual interventions, 8 had favorable effects on outcomes including employment, earnings, education and training, and long-term public benefit receipt. When we averaged across all 30 interventions, average effects were also favorable.
- This report considered 95 interventions implemented during recoveries. Twenty-two had favorable effects. When we averaged across all 95 interventions, average effects were also favorable.
- Specific types of interventions were especially effective during recessions and recoveries.
- During periods of recession, interventions that primarily focused on case management or other supports, employment services, and work and work-based learning had evidence of improving outcomes. Interventions focused on case management or other supports and employment services showed the largest effects during recessions as compared with other types of interventions implemented during recessions.
- During periods of recession, case management interventions tended to have larger effects than during stable economic conditions, and education and training interventions tended to have smaller effects than during stable economic conditions.
- During periods of recovery, interventions that primarily focused on education and training, work and work-based learning, employment services, case management or other supports, and incentives and sanctions had evidence of improving outcomes. Interventions focused on education and training and work and work-based learning showed the largest effects during recoveries as compared with other types of interventions implemented during recoveries.
- During periods of recovery, case management interventions had larger average effects than case management interventions implemented during stable economic conditions.
- During periods of recession, interventions that primarily focused on case management or other supports, employment services, and work and work-based learning had evidence of improving outcomes. Interventions focused on case management or other supports and employment services showed the largest effects during recessions as compared with other types of interventions implemented during recessions.
- Providers can consider changing the types of interventions or services they emphasize based on economic conditions.
- During periods of recession, when unemployment is increasing, practitioners and policymakers should consider placing more emphasis on case management or other supports, and less emphasis on education and training.
- During periods of recovery, when the unemployment rate is falling, practitioners and policymakers should consider targeting resources toward interventions focused on education and training, work and work-based learning, employment services, incentives and sanctions, and case management or other supports.
Methods
For this synthesis report, we used two approaches to address our research questions. First, we conducted a targeted scan for past research that provided theoretical or empirical insights into how or why effects of employment and training programs might differ depending on the economic context (recession, recovery, or stable economic conditions). Next, we used rigorous quantitative techniques known as meta-analysis and meta-regression to summarize the information on interventions and studies reviewed for the Pathways Clearinghouse. These techniques enabled us to identify types of interventions with the strongest favorable effects on outcomes during different economic periods.
Citation
Stanczyk, Alexandra, Dana Rotz, Erin Welch, and Andrei Streke. (2021). Synthesis Report: What Works During Economic Recessions and Recoveries? Evidence from the Pathways Clearinghouse. OPRE Report # 2021-229, Washington, DC: Office of Planning, Research, and Evaluation, Administration for Children and Families, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.